September 29, 2006 at 11:32 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Innovate on Purpose has an essay called “European versus American Innovation”, that seems tobe worth a look:
Some of this thinking goes back to the mythos of the independent tinkerer or inventor in his lab. I think the US has encouraged independent thought and work, and a legend has grown up around the lonely scientist, inventor or innovator working in isolation in her “skunk works”. Europe, on the other hand, has a much more collegial, collaborative approach to innovation, although I suspect the US still has the advantage in a pure entrepreneurial setting, due to the simplicity of setting up a business and the access to private funds.
This mythos lends itself to the culture of the firms, their processes and tools. Interestingly, many firms in Europe are trying to provide training in leadership and culture around innovation, while consultants in the US seem to offer to “do it for you” and outsource the knowledge to initiate and manage an innovation process. Europe is more collaborative and willing to work across boundaries — look at Airbus as one example. The US is just beginning to consider “Open Innovation”. Europe seems more ready to adopt processes and tools to enable innovation, while the US innovator seems more likely to try to “go it alone”.
September 27, 2006 at 8:24 am · Filed under Uncategorized
From The Knickerbocker, or New-York Monthly Magazine, January 1844, which I own, scanned, submitted to the Distributed Proofreaders workflow, and which my wife has just started editing back into shape a year later.
As I’ve mentioned before, The Knickerbocker is an American literary magazine of the early part of the 19th Century, and contains some of the most amazing prose selections. It’s sadly underrepresented online, in the literary canon, and in scholarly work on humorous writing. It’s the direct spiritual predecessor to the most amusing modern literary magazines McSweeney’s and The Believer.
I look forward, not least because of the shelf-full of mouldering volumes in my basement, to sharing the rest of the magazine’s run with the world in the coming months. Go register for Distributed Proofreaders (free! simple!), and read five or ten pages of the current volume we’re working on (Vol. 10, as I recall).
I’ve tried to maintain some of the wonderful typography the HTML version preserves, but you should really go look at the full issue at Project Gutenberg to see the full glory. And read about a vacation in Florida in the 1840s. And other things.
LETTER FROM JAMES JESSAMINE.
TO THE EDITOR OF THE KNICKERBOCKER.
Sir: It has not been until after much reflection on my own part, and I must say, very civil encouragement on that of my friend Mr. John Waters, whose acquaintance I have chanced upon some months back, that I have determined to venture, either in the form of an advértisement extra, or possibly by your very polite admission of this self-introductory letter into your fashionable pages, to submit to the view of the more refined and intellectual part of the society of the Atlantic cities and particularly to that of New York, the peculiar claim that I conceive myself to possess upon their consideration and regard.
I have been hitherto deterred from taking this decisive step, as well by the very disturbed and almost turbulent state, which, since my arrival in this country, appears to have characterized its monetary concerns—alas! my dear Sir, those horrid yet necessary evils and grievances of life!—as by some expectations I had cause to entertain soon after I set foot upon your hospitable shores, of the immediate death of a maiden aunt in Cornwall, upon which incident, and her continued celibacy, depend very much all my present reversionary hopes.
The health of the old lady being however at my latest intelligence unexpectedly reinstated; the cotton crops coming forward as I understand to good markets, and the wonderful discovery having been made of converting western pork into sallad oil; the Tories being put down, and the banks having entered into what some time ago seemed the paulo post futurum of specie payments; I desire to share in the general tide of prosperity; I launch myself upon it at its flood, discard all reserve, and shall descend at once without farther preface into the midst of what I have to say.
I came out then some time ago ostensibly to kill a trout or two in some of your delicious streams; and indeed I may without presumption say en passant that few professors of the Rod excel me either in the niceties of my throw, the cool self-possession with which I take my fish, or the indomitable perseverance and perfect tact with which I drown and then land him with a single hair. I say ostensibly, for I have now no desire to conceal from you the ulterior objects that I had in view of either making a book to replenish my purse, or of establishing myself for life in this your rising land of freedom and big crops.
I have had ‘good luck to your fishing’ sung to me more than once by most sweet voices, and have realized it to my heart’s content in the way of trout; but this is all. Since I arrived in America there have been no less than three travelling historians upon the ground, with whose energy of conception, art of fabrication, facility of combination, capacity of bitterness and established name, I could not enter the lists. And as for matrimonial projects, foreigners seem to me to have no longer any hope of success in consequence of the entire pre-occupation of this walk of life by a regularly drilled and educated corps of young Americans, bred up avowedly with no other pursuit; who talk, think, dream of nothing else than fortune by marriage; and with a shrewdness and intelligence of calculation that entirely distance the foreigner, (but which seem wonderfully after the nuptials to forsake them in stocks of another description,) know at a glance the value, expectations, hopes, and dependencies of each young marriageable lady even before she comes out; so that instead of being able to accomplish a purpose of this kind, I find it quite as much as I can do to avoid falling in love beyond repeal with the refinement, gentleness, grace, and untold sweetness that distinguish the portionless beauties of New-York.
Indeed this class to which I have adverted of licensed fortune-hunters is so numerous; the fortunes themselves except to the initiated are so uncertain; and the entire want of that most useful profession, les courtiers de mariage, is so grievous to all incidental visitors, that I have often thought how admirable the arrangement would be, if the young ladies were at once to adopt as a fashionable decoration some tasteful head ornament, on which should be inscribed, in distinct but graceful characters, some one of such legends as the following, which should indicate the incontestible possessions of the wearer:
- $30,000 State of New-York Fives.
- My face is my fortune.
- $200,000 Indiana State Bonds.
- 2 lots on Broadway, 4 in the Bowery and 1 on Union-Square.
- Nothing but truth, discretion, intelligence and grace.
- $60,000 Alabama Sterling Bonds.
- The Tongues, and what you see.
- $27,000 on indefeasible Bond and Mortgage.
- A House and Shop in Maiden-Lane with fixtures, and a careful tenant at 1400 a year on lease three years unexpired.
- Musick—four pianos done up since this time last year.
- 30,000 Pine trees and three saw-mills in Saint Lawrence county: N. B., well situated!
- A large Manufacturing Establishment with unbounded Water-privileges, in Ulster.
- Life and Trust—40 shares daily recovering.
The young gentlemen might wear appended to the third button-hole of the left breast, epigrammatical notices of ‘THE EXPECTATIONS’ in which they so generally abound, as follows:
- Uncle Asa has the phthisick, I am his heir.
- As I STAND, less my tailor’s bill of $1800.
- Plenty of Lots, covered partly with water, partly with parchment.
- In full and successful business, owing only four times our capital, due us five times, chiefly in Mississippi. Expect to retire in two years and enjoy life.
- Two-and-six-pence in my pocket, with great but indefinable hopes.
- A promising young member of the Bar. Three suits;—☛ one of them in court. Grant me my fourth!
A young lady, whose nice tact and discriminating judgment are only rivalled by her sweetness of disposition and exquisite personal attractions, has divided the world of beaux into three generick classes:
- The Rich who are afraid of us;
- The Poor whom we are afraid of;
- The Detrimentalists.
The plan I propose would aid manifestly in the due classification of all assistants at a ball. It is not to be thought that the sex is governed by any mercenary motive; but in the present organization of society a certain degree of attention to the mode in which matrimonial establishments are to be sustained is absolutely imperative.
Conceive then Mr. Editor how this explicit course would remove the ordinary impediments on both sides. One single tour de Valse and the whole affair might be adjusted! The gentleman forsakes the lady’s eyes and fixes his own upon her tiara; she hers upon his eloquent button-hole. During the slow movement they have deciphered the mottoes, have ascertained, (no small desideratum in a crowded ball-room!) each the exact value of his or her partner; they have arrived in thought, as far as mere expediency goes, each at a decision; and are ready for question and answer at the close of the accelerated step.
By the way, as the waltz is now conducted, the employment of the eyes during the slow sentimental movement seems frequently to the lady a matter of some degree of embarrassment; and the method I propose would effectually remove any thing of the sort. There could be no want of an object on which to rest them; no looking with a fixed gaze over the partner’s shoulder; no consulting of the cornice; no care-fraught expression; no reluctant or displeased look, as if the lady would have fain declined; no indeterminate thoughts, no indefinite sensations; no languishment; and above all never more the portentous, the ominous look which often in that entrancing dance exhibits to us the mysticism of the Sybil, without one ray of her inspiration.
No; then would the lady look, read, decide, and dance the while. ‘This might do!’—then would she sparkle. ‘Ah this would never do!’—then would she become placid, tranquil, and complete her tour with contentment; for as I think some one else has before me wisely observed, the end of doubt is the beginning of repose. Then would the faces of the ladies generally become vastly more attractive than at present during the enjoyment of the waltz; for singular as may seem the remark, although I have assisted at several New-York balls, I have met two countenances only throughout the whole galaxy of beauty that, in dancing the Waltz, have indicated either joy or undisturbed gratification: the one, is that of a little sylph-like beam of pleasure, who might well carry upon her beautiful hair, ‘unincumbered lots,’ as her wedding-portion; who gains our hearts while she laughs at us; and who, because I chance to be within half a score of her father’s years, threatens to call me her vieux chéri—while the name of the other, if I dared write it, would recall the most tasteful and fashionable costumes of France, with the sweetest poetry of Scotland.
But alas my master! I have gone prattling on without saying a word of my own pretensions until my letter has gained such a length that I am forced to defer them to another number, while I subscribe myself, dear Mr. Editor of the Knickerbocker,
Your most faithful servant,
James Jessamine.
September 27, 2006 at 7:19 am · Filed under Uncategorized
In the spirit of full disclosure, I should state for the record that over the years I personally have excepted more than $40k for futurism-related activities.
But I have to say it sounds like I did a better job at it than the folks mentioned in Ars Technica’s overview, “Experts believe the future will be like Sci-Fi movies”:
Are these scenarios really indicative of future trends? Given the prevalence of many of these concepts in science fiction content, it is obvious that the ideas themselves are at least relevant enough to warrant consideration. That said, the nature of the survey and the way that the scenarios are presented makes the entire thing seem less plausible. In looking at classic science fiction films of the past, from Blade Runner to Soylent Green, one realizes that few of them really predict with any accuracy the world we live in today. Culture and technology can change in radically unpredictable ways, and today’s experts may lack the foresight to perceive the future with the clarity of Hari Seldon.
September 26, 2006 at 5:55 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
From Pandagon:
The feeding pipe was thick, thicker than my nostril, and would not go in. Blood came gushing out of my nose and tears down my cheeks, but they kept pushing until the cartilages cracked. I guess I would have screamed if I could, but I could not with the pipe in my throat. I could breathe neither in nor out at first; I wheezed like a drowning man — my lungs felt ready to burst. The doctor also seemed ready to burst into tears, but she kept shoving the pipe farther and farther down. Only when it reached my stomach could I resume breathing, carefully. Then she poured some slop through a funnel into the pipe that would choke me if it came back up. They held me down for another half-hour so that the liquid was absorbed by my stomach and could not be vomited back, and then began to pull the pipe out bit by bit. . . . Grrrr. There had just been time for everything to start healing during the night when they came back in the morning and did it all over again, for 10 days, when the guards could stand it no longer. As it happened, it was a Sunday and no bosses were around. They surrounded the doctor: “Hey, listen, let him drink it straight from the bowl, let him sip it. It’ll be quicker for you, too, you silly old fool.” The doctor was in tears: “Do you think I want to go to jail because of you lot? No, I can’t do that…. ” And so they stood over my body, cursing each other, with bloody bubbles coming out of my nose. On the 12th day, the authorities surrendered; they had run out of time. I had gotten my lawyer, but neither the doctor nor those guards could ever look me in the eye again.
[tags]fascism,political activism,war on terror,link,quote[/tags]
September 25, 2006 at 9:08 am · Filed under Uncategorized
People, even in the Academy, need to have lives. They should not be working 20-hour days, or seven-day weeks. Their minds suffer, their work suffers, and their ability to perform and excel suffers. At Nobel Intent: “Bringing flexibility to science”:
A speaker from the University of Florida described the overall goal of these programs as allowing a career with multiple exit and entry points, so that faculty may cope with various challenges in their lives without penalty or ending their careers. Several clear themes emerged as the programs were described in detail. Three institutions were using the money to set up coordinating groups with neighboring institutions to facilitate the hiring of couples where both halves are on the academic track. Once hired, the emphasis was on allowing various forms of leave in the face of newly arrived children (including via adoption), family emergencies, and illness. These leaves included relief from teaching duty, suspension of the tenure track time line, creation of a part-time faculty position, and even small “productivity maintenance” grants to help faculty stay on top of the field while on leave. One other aspect that received attention is the transition out of the lab and into retirement; several institutions planned on creating positions that allow faculty to either exit gradually or to continue to work at a reduced level.
September 25, 2006 at 9:01 am · Filed under Uncategorized
As ever, these are items that have come in over the various and sundry preprint services and lists I watch; listing them here not because they’re good, but because they’ve caught my eye, and they’re related to What I Do these days.
Having my eye caught is What I Do, actually.
So, in no particular order:
“Forecasting Realized Volatility by Decomposition”:
Abstract: Forecasts of the realized volatility of the exchange rate returns of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar obtained directly and through decomposition are compared. Decomposing the realized volatility into its continuous sample path and jump components and modeling and forecasting them separately instead of directly forecasting the realized volatility is shown to lead to improved out-of-sample forecasts. Moreover, gains in forecast accuracy are robust with respect to the details of the decomposition.
“Generalized response surface methodology: a new metaheuristic”
Abstract: Generalized Response Surface Methodology (GRSM) is a novel general-purpose metaheuristic based on Box and Wilson.s Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Both GRSM and RSM estimate local gradients to search for the optimal solution. These gradients use local first-order polynomials. GRSM, however, uses these gradients to estimate a better search direction than the steepest ascent direction used by RSM. Moreover, GRSM allows multiple responses, selecting one response as goal and the other responses as constrained variables. Finally, these estimated gradients may be used to test whether the estimated solution is indeed optimal. The focus of this paper is optimization of simulated systems.
“A Public Dilemma: Cooperation with Large Stakes and a Large Audience”
Abstract: We analyze a large-stakes prisoner’s dilemma game played on a TV show. Players cooperate 40% of the time, demonstrating that social preferences are important; however, cooperation is significantly below the 50% threshold that is required for inequity aversion to sustain cooperation. Women cooperate significantly more than men, while players who have “earned” more of the stake cooperate less. A player’s promise to cooperate is also a good predictor of his decision. Surprisingly, a player’s probability of cooperation is unrelated to the opponent’s characteristics or promise. We argue that inequity aversion alone cannot adequately explain these results; reputational concerns in a public setting might be more important.
“What We Research in Social Sciences: Is Homo Oeconomicus Dead?”
Abstract: Transition is not just transition of formal institutions, convergence of price levels and living standards. The closure or the gap in formal institutions is probably less time demanding than the closure of ideological or mental gap, created in many fields in academy or social life. Social sciences have been erased during half a century and post-soviets still struggle for academic prestige of these areas. We have seen many misunderstandings concerning the interrelations, hierarchy and even object of study in social sciences. Superiority of economics is sometimes created by market signals, or superiority of some other discipline by “political signals”. Our aim is to show that in the body of social sciences economics is a normal science which can be defined by method, not by subject matter. We will introduce the alternative methodological approaches to rational choice and indicate their advantages and disadvantages. Mainly two questions are answered. First, is there some alternative methodology which has been more successful in producing efficient predictions and explanations of social affairs? Second, how methodological criticism has changed rational choice perspectives and can these changes be justified? Finally, changes in methodology of economics are discussed showing that there is no clear answer — how to parcel our social sciences?
“Tests for independence in nonparametric regression”
Abstract: Consider the nonparametric regression model Y = m(X)+e, where the function m is smooth, but unknown. We construct tests for the independence of e and X, based on n independent copies of (X; Y ). The testing procedures are based on differences of neighboring Y ’s. We establish asymptotic results for the proposed tests statistics, investigate their finite sample properties through a simulation study and present an econometric application to household data. The proofs are based on delicate empirical process theory.
“Nonlinear Time Series Analysis”
Abstract: This entry for the New Palgrave covers developments in nonlinear time series analysis over the last 25 years.
“Trust as a Signal of a Social Norm and the Hidden Costs of Incentive Schemes”
Abstract: An explanation for motivation crowding-out phenomena is developed in a social preferences framework. Besides selfish and fair or altruistic types a third type of agents is introduced: These ‘conformists’ have social preferences if they believe that sufficiently many of the others do too. When there is asymmetric information about the distribution of preferences (the ’social norm’), the incentive scheme offered or autonomy granted can reveal a principal’s beliefs about that norm. High-powered incentives may crowd out motivation as pessimism about the norm is conveyed. But by choosing fixed wages or granting autonomy the principal may signal trust in a favorable social norm.
“Satisficing in Portfolio Selection—Theoretical Aspects and Experimental Tests”
Abstract: The satisficing approach with its three constituent processes, aspiration formation, satisficing, and aspiration adjustment, is formally elaborated for a specific class of portfolio selection tasks. It is partly poorly confirmed by experimental data, indicating that bounded rationality requires teaching or, respectively, consulting, and learning. It is also discussed and tested experimentally whether satisficing is task transcending (are there individual constants in satisficing behavior for related tasks?) and absorbable (do we stick to satisficing behavior when becoming aware of it?).
“Real-time forecasting and political stock market anomalies: evidence for the U.S.”
Abstract: Using monthly data for the period 1953–2003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model selection criteria, are often included in real-time forecasting models. However, they do not contribute to systematically improving the performance of simple trading rules. For this reason, political stock market anomalies are not necessarily an indication of market inefficiency.
“Highly Interconnected Subsystems of the Stock Market”
Abstract: The stock market is a complex system that affects economic and financial activities around the world. Analysis of stock price data can improve our understanding of the past price movements of stocks. In this work, we develop a method to determine the highly interconnected subsystems of the stock market. Our method relies on a k-core decomposition scheme to analyze large networks. Our approach illustrates that the stock market is a nearly decomposable system which comprises hierarchic subsystems. This work also presents results from the analysis of a network derived from a large data set of stock prices. This network analysis technique is a new promising approach to analyze and classify stocks based on price interactions and to decompose the complex system embodied in the stock market.
“Pricing the Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Long Memory in Temperatures”
Abstract: Weather derivatives are financial contracts for which the underlying is not a traded asset. Therefore, they cannot be priced by the traditional financial theory based on the hedging portfolio and on the arbitrage-free argument. Some authors suggest to use the actuarial pricing approach to value the weather derivatives. But this method suffers from the fact that it is only based on the modelling of the temperature. The market information is not necessary to value the weather derivatives by this approach. On the contrary, the financial method needs to infer the market price of weather risk since the market is incomplete for the weather derivatives. We suggest in this paper to compute and to compare the prices stemming from the both approaches by using the New York weather futures quotations. Prices are calculated on the basis that the daily average temperature has a long memory since tests reveal its presence in the serie.
“Network Models of Phage-Bacteria Coevolution”
Bacteria and their bacteriophages are the most abundant, widespread and diverse groups of biological entities on the planet. In an attempt to understand how the interactions between bacteria, virulent phages and temperate phages might affect the diversity of these groups, we developed a novel stochastic network model for examining the co-evolution of these ecologies. In our approach, nodes represent whole species or strains of bacteria or phages, rather than individuals, with “speciation” and extinction modelled by duplication and removal of nodes. Phage-bacteria links represent host-parasite relationships and temperate-virulent phage links denote prophage-encoded resistance. The effect of horizontal transfer of genetic information between strains was also included in the dynamical rules. The observed networks evolved in a highly dynamic fashion but the ecosystems were prone to collapse (one or more entire groups going extinct). Diversity could be stably maintained in the model only if the probability of speciation was independent of the diversity. Such an effect could be achieved in real ecosystems if the speciation rate is primarily set by the availability of ecological niches.
“Problem Evolution: A new approach to problem solving systems”
In this paper we present a novel tool to evaluate problem solving systems. Instead of using a system to solve a problem, we suggest using the problem to evaluate the system. By finding a numerical representation of a problem’s complexity, one can implement genetic algorithm to search for the most complex problem the given system can solve. This allows a comparison between different systems that solve the same set of problems. In this paper we implement this approach on pattern recognition neural networks to try and find the most complex pattern a given configuration can solve. The complexity of the pattern is calculated using linguistic complexity. The results demonstrate the power of the problem evolution approach in ranking different neural network configurations according to their pattern recognition abilities. Future research and implementations of this technique are also discussed.
“The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters”
Abstract: As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What’s more, more experienced forecasters have “learned to be overconfident,” and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.
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