“Pre­dict­ing Com­mit­tee Action”:

Abstract: Suc­cess of a pol­icy often requires both that a good pol­icy be adopted, and that the pub­lic or firms cor­rectly antic­i­pate what pol­icy gov­ern­ment will adopt. This paper mod­els a rela­tion between com­mit­tee size and the effec­tive­ness of pol­icy, with a focus on how the accu­racy of the public’s expec­ta­tions varies with the size of the gov­ern­men­tal com­mit­tee set­ting pol­icy. The paper also argues that the demand for access by spe­cial inter­est groups may arise not from a desire to influ­ence pol­icy, but from a desire to learn about government’s likely actions.