Silly Futurist, the future’s for kids!

In the spirit of full dis­clo­sure, I should state for the record that over the years I per­son­ally have excepted more than $40k for futurism-​​related activities.

But I have to say it sounds like I did a bet­ter job at it than the folks men­tioned in Ars Technica’s overview, “Experts believe the future will be like Sci-​​Fi movies”:

Are these sce­nar­ios really indica­tive of future trends? Given the preva­lence of many of these con­cepts in sci­ence fic­tion con­tent, it is obvi­ous that the ideas them­selves are at least rel­e­vant enough to war­rant con­sid­er­a­tion. That said, the nature of the sur­vey and the way that the sce­nar­ios are pre­sented makes the entire thing seem less plau­si­ble. In look­ing at clas­sic sci­ence fic­tion films of the past, from Blade Run­ner to Soy­lent Green, one real­izes that few of them really pre­dict with any accu­racy the world we live in today. Cul­ture and tech­nol­ogy can change in rad­i­cally unpre­dictable ways, and today’s experts may lack the fore­sight to per­ceive the future with the clar­ity of Hari Seldon.

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